Monday, September 19, 2005
Meanwhile in Germany...
The predicted landslide for Angela Merkel failed to materialise as the German elections threw up a tie. There is just about a percentage point seperating the CDU/CSU coalition from the Red/Green Coalition (which translates into a 3-seat difference in the Bundestag). The liberal FDP has about 10% of the vote, while the Greens and the Left have 8% each.
The liberals from the FDP are natural allies for the CDU/CSU combine. Unfortunately, they have only 10% of the vote, which will get the coalition upto 45%, which is not enough to form a government. Schroder's SPD, on the other hand, can go for a coalition with the Greens and the Left, which will get them up to 50%+, a position from where Schroder could ostensibly retain his chancellorship. Trouble is that Schroder had categorically ruled out the possibility of aligning with the Left, who are a bit extreme for SPD voters, if you can imagine that. So, what other options exist for government formation in the world's third-largest economy (and largest exporter)?
Schroder could, in principle, convince the FDP to join the Red/Green Coalition, using the promise of greater reforms perhaps. Trouble is that Guido Westerwelle of the FDP has categorically ruled out a traffic light (red, green and FDP yellow) coalition because he doesn't think Red/Green is committed to serious economic reforms. That leaves us with one remaining possibility, which is that the CDU/CSU combine will go in for a grand coalition with the SPD/Green party with both the FDP and the Left sitting it out, or perhaps the FDP joining the coalition. If I were a betting man, I would bet on this grand coalition. And yes, I will also probably bet that it won't last very long.
However, who will head such a coalition? Once again, I think Schroder has the upper hand since Angela Merkel literally blew a 20-point lead while Schroder's remarkable political skills have earned him the title of the "comeback kid" for the second election in a row. Political Betting, however, tips Merkel to become chancellor. Watch this space.
The liberals from the FDP are natural allies for the CDU/CSU combine. Unfortunately, they have only 10% of the vote, which will get the coalition upto 45%, which is not enough to form a government. Schroder's SPD, on the other hand, can go for a coalition with the Greens and the Left, which will get them up to 50%+, a position from where Schroder could ostensibly retain his chancellorship. Trouble is that Schroder had categorically ruled out the possibility of aligning with the Left, who are a bit extreme for SPD voters, if you can imagine that. So, what other options exist for government formation in the world's third-largest economy (and largest exporter)?
Schroder could, in principle, convince the FDP to join the Red/Green Coalition, using the promise of greater reforms perhaps. Trouble is that Guido Westerwelle of the FDP has categorically ruled out a traffic light (red, green and FDP yellow) coalition because he doesn't think Red/Green is committed to serious economic reforms. That leaves us with one remaining possibility, which is that the CDU/CSU combine will go in for a grand coalition with the SPD/Green party with both the FDP and the Left sitting it out, or perhaps the FDP joining the coalition. If I were a betting man, I would bet on this grand coalition. And yes, I will also probably bet that it won't last very long.
However, who will head such a coalition? Once again, I think Schroder has the upper hand since Angela Merkel literally blew a 20-point lead while Schroder's remarkable political skills have earned him the title of the "comeback kid" for the second election in a row. Political Betting, however, tips Merkel to become chancellor. Watch this space.
