Saturday, January 15, 2005
CIA 2020 report bullish on India, China
The National Intelligence Council at the CIA, responsible for mid to long-term strategic planning, has just released its assessment of the world in 2020 called Mapping the Global Future (full report available at this link). The Toronto Star has the details.
Al Qaeda, out; murky and scattered new terror cells, in. Hollywood, out; India's "Bollywood" in. America as sole superpower, out; China and India as world players, in. "How we mentally map the world of 2020 will change radically,'' said the National Intelligence Council chairman Robert Hutchings at the release yesterday of his panel's new report, Project 2020. Newly arriving powers "have the potential to render obsolete the old categories of East and West, North and South.''
The unclassified forecasts offer a range of scenarios about the world 15 years on. Officials caution they are not meant to be predictions certain to come true but rather long-term outlooks designed to stimulate debate. The council predicts an emergence of new global players — almost certainly China and India — but whether these new players fit into the world co-operatively or competitively remains an important uncertainty for the U.S.
Council vice-chairman David Gordon said the changes ahead could be "a very bumpy ride." Among them, he said, the integration of 1 billion low-paid workers will cause global shifts in rich and poor nations alike. Changes will be experienced politically, economically and even culturally, as Korean pop singers gain international popularity and India's Bollywood movie industry outshines Hollywood. "Of course, the United States is in good shape to participate in this world, but it will be a world that will be much more competitive for us," Gordon said.
Make the full report your weekend reading, people :)
Al Qaeda, out; murky and scattered new terror cells, in. Hollywood, out; India's "Bollywood" in. America as sole superpower, out; China and India as world players, in. "How we mentally map the world of 2020 will change radically,'' said the National Intelligence Council chairman Robert Hutchings at the release yesterday of his panel's new report, Project 2020. Newly arriving powers "have the potential to render obsolete the old categories of East and West, North and South.''
The unclassified forecasts offer a range of scenarios about the world 15 years on. Officials caution they are not meant to be predictions certain to come true but rather long-term outlooks designed to stimulate debate. The council predicts an emergence of new global players — almost certainly China and India — but whether these new players fit into the world co-operatively or competitively remains an important uncertainty for the U.S.
Council vice-chairman David Gordon said the changes ahead could be "a very bumpy ride." Among them, he said, the integration of 1 billion low-paid workers will cause global shifts in rich and poor nations alike. Changes will be experienced politically, economically and even culturally, as Korean pop singers gain international popularity and India's Bollywood movie industry outshines Hollywood. "Of course, the United States is in good shape to participate in this world, but it will be a world that will be much more competitive for us," Gordon said.
Make the full report your weekend reading, people :)
