Monday, October 25, 2004
Election Talk Everywhere
As the polling day approaches there are more and more people whirlpooled in taking a shot at predicting the winner (Take a look at the volume on tradesports, where you can bet real money on your choice). Via Andrew Abel, I got to know of this website, run by a professor of molecular biology at Princeton, who predicts the winner.
Infact, this is the only the prediction that I have seen that scientifically takes into account undecided voters. How exactly does he do this? Well, the simple story is that, historically, undecided voters shun the incumbent and prefer the challenger. He esimtates this margin and combines it with several polls on decided voters. His website also has state by state breakdowns and even the areas where you, as a voter, can have maximum impact. So, who, according to Prof. Wang, will win? Check it out.
Infact, this is the only the prediction that I have seen that scientifically takes into account undecided voters. How exactly does he do this? Well, the simple story is that, historically, undecided voters shun the incumbent and prefer the challenger. He esimtates this margin and combines it with several polls on decided voters. His website also has state by state breakdowns and even the areas where you, as a voter, can have maximum impact. So, who, according to Prof. Wang, will win? Check it out.
