Thursday, August 19, 2004
Summary of Poll data
Here is an interesting website that keeps track of all the latest polling data on the U.S. presidential race. Since its a comprehensive (mother of all polls, if you will) and up-to-date (literally by the day), it's a good place to look at for emerging trends. And the current trends indicate this --
Needed to Win: 270 Electoral Votes
All states (based on most-current poll only):
Bush = 207 Electoral Votes
Kerry = 301 Electoral Votes
Tied = 30 Electoral Votes
Cause for optimism? If this trend continues after the Republican convention, maybe! In the meanwhile, stop looking at national poll data and look at state level data instead. As the last election proved, winning the popular vote doesn't amount to much in the electoral college-based system in the U.S. You can have razor-thin margins in national polls and yet have a comprehensive winner of the electoral college votes.
Update: Andrew pointed me to this site, which presents some of the same information in a graphic format.
Needed to Win: 270 Electoral Votes
All states (based on most-current poll only):
Bush = 207 Electoral Votes
Kerry = 301 Electoral Votes
Tied = 30 Electoral Votes
Cause for optimism? If this trend continues after the Republican convention, maybe! In the meanwhile, stop looking at national poll data and look at state level data instead. As the last election proved, winning the popular vote doesn't amount to much in the electoral college-based system in the U.S. You can have razor-thin margins in national polls and yet have a comprehensive winner of the electoral college votes.
Update: Andrew pointed me to this site, which presents some of the same information in a graphic format.
