Tuesday, March 23, 2004
English in decline?
For the longest time, I have been interested in the historical trends of languages, especially dominant languages. For example, how did Latin and Sanskrit, languages once widely spoken, go into such decline? What happened to the proto Indo-European language? Will English go the way of Latin, where people in different places speak it in so many different accents that they eventually become new languages -- will Indian-English become an entirely new language the way any of the Romance languages spun off from Latin? So, I was intrigued when I came across this National Geographic article that claims that English could well be into its decline already.
The main thrust of the article is that English as a first language is well into its decline, though it remains the language of science the way Latin remained the language of science well into the 17th century. In addition, it goes on to say that people will start to learn Mandarin Chinese as the Chinese economy starts to power ahead of the U.S. economy.
Long gone is the idea, first suggested in the 19th century, that the entire world will one day speak English as a "world language." In fact, the relative decline of English is continuing. In the mid-20th century, nearly 9 percent of the world's population grew up speaking English as their first language. In 2050, the number is expected to be 5 percent.
In the next decade, the new must-learn language is likely to be Mandarin. "Chinese is demographically huge, but when the Chinese economy has overtaken that of the United States, no one will be able to ignore its global power," Graddol said. "We know from the past that great languages of science can be overtaken.
I agree that English as a first language could well be into its decline. However, I think English as a second language will actually overtake Mandarin pretty soon as the most widely spoken language if it isn't aleady (think of all those Europeans who speak English as a second language, for example). What this article seems to forget is that Mandarin speakers are learning English in large numbers along the eastern seaboard. And most importantly, the Indian middle class is fast growing and almost every last one of them will eventually speak English as a second, if not first language. And the aspirational value of English to the remaining 70% of the population is immense, as the admission levels at any English-medium school in villages in northern India will show.
I think it was Brad DeLong who once commented that it was amusing that the Indian middle class would eventually save the English language from an early demise :)
The main thrust of the article is that English as a first language is well into its decline, though it remains the language of science the way Latin remained the language of science well into the 17th century. In addition, it goes on to say that people will start to learn Mandarin Chinese as the Chinese economy starts to power ahead of the U.S. economy.
Long gone is the idea, first suggested in the 19th century, that the entire world will one day speak English as a "world language." In fact, the relative decline of English is continuing. In the mid-20th century, nearly 9 percent of the world's population grew up speaking English as their first language. In 2050, the number is expected to be 5 percent.
In the next decade, the new must-learn language is likely to be Mandarin. "Chinese is demographically huge, but when the Chinese economy has overtaken that of the United States, no one will be able to ignore its global power," Graddol said. "We know from the past that great languages of science can be overtaken.
I agree that English as a first language could well be into its decline. However, I think English as a second language will actually overtake Mandarin pretty soon as the most widely spoken language if it isn't aleady (think of all those Europeans who speak English as a second language, for example). What this article seems to forget is that Mandarin speakers are learning English in large numbers along the eastern seaboard. And most importantly, the Indian middle class is fast growing and almost every last one of them will eventually speak English as a second, if not first language. And the aspirational value of English to the remaining 70% of the population is immense, as the admission levels at any English-medium school in villages in northern India will show.
I think it was Brad DeLong who once commented that it was amusing that the Indian middle class would eventually save the English language from an early demise :)
