Wednesday, December 17, 2003
Migration, reversed
The Wall Street Journal is carrying a story on the return of Indian programmers to the mother country. There is nothing new about this phenomenon or this story, but nevertheless publication in the WSJ will probably create a greater public awareness of something that could in fact create a real problem in the U.S. long term.
When a very large part of the technical force in the U.S. is foreign-born, the assumption is that they will behave like normal immigrants and stay on and add to the technological capacity and economic activity of/in the U.S. What if they don't? What if Indian and Chinese scientists decide to return to the homeland (voluntarily or otherwise)? What will happen to the U.S. lead in innovation? Needless to say, the return of the skilled migrant also takes away the multiplier he/she had created in the past.
As companies like Lumenare increasingly move software and other service-sector jobs to India, Mr. Maheshwari effectively wound up competing against himself in the global labor market. Tens of thousands of U.S. programmers are unemployed, and pay is declining for those still working. In returning to India, Mr. Maheshwari may be in the vanguard of a growing reverse migration. Over the past decade, hundreds of thousands of Indian engineers moved to the U.S. for jobs, adventure and Silicon Valley wealth. Now, the U.S. job market is lousy and the government is tightening the rules on immigrants.
Seeems like bad news for the U.S. and if anything, the new visa caps and the nonsense being initiated in the name of the war on terror are going to simply make it worse.
When a very large part of the technical force in the U.S. is foreign-born, the assumption is that they will behave like normal immigrants and stay on and add to the technological capacity and economic activity of/in the U.S. What if they don't? What if Indian and Chinese scientists decide to return to the homeland (voluntarily or otherwise)? What will happen to the U.S. lead in innovation? Needless to say, the return of the skilled migrant also takes away the multiplier he/she had created in the past.
As companies like Lumenare increasingly move software and other service-sector jobs to India, Mr. Maheshwari effectively wound up competing against himself in the global labor market. Tens of thousands of U.S. programmers are unemployed, and pay is declining for those still working. In returning to India, Mr. Maheshwari may be in the vanguard of a growing reverse migration. Over the past decade, hundreds of thousands of Indian engineers moved to the U.S. for jobs, adventure and Silicon Valley wealth. Now, the U.S. job market is lousy and the government is tightening the rules on immigrants.
Seeems like bad news for the U.S. and if anything, the new visa caps and the nonsense being initiated in the name of the war on terror are going to simply make it worse.
