Saturday, December 27, 2003
The General in his Labyrinth
I have been fascinated by the western media's coverage of Gen.Musharraf. He started of being described as a vile sort, but post 9/11, he became some sort of media darling. Witness how the media suggested that there was no credible alternative to the General. True, but what the media missed was that the lack of an alternative to Musharraf was partly because the two most popular politicians in Pakistan (Nawaz Sharif and Benazir Bhutto) were in exile in Saudi Arabia and London. Needless to say, the media also has a habit of skimming over Musharraf's personal culpability in the Kargil disaster.
Of late though, he seems to be returning to semi-pariah status given that Bin Laden has not been captured yet and more than one person in the west doubts Musharaf's sincerity in breaking down the complex links between Al Qaeda and the ISI. Besides, Musharaf seems to be living a charmed life given the number of attempts that have been made on his life in the past two weeks. Typical of this change in opinion reflected in the media is this op-ed in the Washington Post which was written in the wake of the latest attempt on the General's life.
More than ever, Mr. Musharraf's ability to deliver on his promises to stand with the United States against terrorism and Islamic extremism is in doubt. His sudden death would trigger a crisis both for Pakistan and for U.S. security. Yet if the Bush administration has a fallback plan, it shows no sign of it.
The world already has good reason to wonder whether, despite Mr. Musharraf's promises, Pakistan's nuclear technology is being spread to rogue states or terrorists. If he were to fall victim to assassination, Pakistan's own nuclear arsenal might be up for grabs, as extremist Muslim and pro-Western elements inside and outside the military scrambled for power. Mr. Musharraf's manipulation of the political system leaves no clear road map for continuity. Bush administration officials appear to bank on the assumption of power in a crisis by another friendly general -- which, even under Mr. Musharraf's constitution, probably would require a coup d'etat. Other forces, including the secular democratic parties and civil society movements, might be allies of the United States, but the Bush administration's strategy doesn't encompass them. All its chips are on a man whose evasion of two suicide truck bombs was, for the second time this month, a lucky chance.
Of late though, he seems to be returning to semi-pariah status given that Bin Laden has not been captured yet and more than one person in the west doubts Musharaf's sincerity in breaking down the complex links between Al Qaeda and the ISI. Besides, Musharaf seems to be living a charmed life given the number of attempts that have been made on his life in the past two weeks. Typical of this change in opinion reflected in the media is this op-ed in the Washington Post which was written in the wake of the latest attempt on the General's life.
More than ever, Mr. Musharraf's ability to deliver on his promises to stand with the United States against terrorism and Islamic extremism is in doubt. His sudden death would trigger a crisis both for Pakistan and for U.S. security. Yet if the Bush administration has a fallback plan, it shows no sign of it.
The world already has good reason to wonder whether, despite Mr. Musharraf's promises, Pakistan's nuclear technology is being spread to rogue states or terrorists. If he were to fall victim to assassination, Pakistan's own nuclear arsenal might be up for grabs, as extremist Muslim and pro-Western elements inside and outside the military scrambled for power. Mr. Musharraf's manipulation of the political system leaves no clear road map for continuity. Bush administration officials appear to bank on the assumption of power in a crisis by another friendly general -- which, even under Mr. Musharraf's constitution, probably would require a coup d'etat. Other forces, including the secular democratic parties and civil society movements, might be allies of the United States, but the Bush administration's strategy doesn't encompass them. All its chips are on a man whose evasion of two suicide truck bombs was, for the second time this month, a lucky chance.
