Friday, October 10, 2003
Tomorrow's Economic Giants Part II -- Dreaming with BRIC's
Here is the Goldman Sachs study mentioned in my last post -- Dreaming with BRIC's: The Path to 2050. The authors are Dominic Wilson and Roopa Purushothaman and the publish date is Oct 1, 2003. The paper is a fascinating read. Though noone can really predict anything over a long-ish period, such a study is useful, if nothing else to alleviate ignorance about the potential of emerging markets.
Personally, I happen to think 2050 is a bit on the conservative side. If India, China and Brazil can maintain relative political stability, I'll predict that this catch-up process will happen a lot sooner. I remain circumspect (as noted in the previous post) about Russia. Sure, the economy is doing really well under Putin, but what on earth are they going to do about their demographics in an immigrant-unfriendly situation?
Personally, I happen to think 2050 is a bit on the conservative side. If India, China and Brazil can maintain relative political stability, I'll predict that this catch-up process will happen a lot sooner. I remain circumspect (as noted in the previous post) about Russia. Sure, the economy is doing really well under Putin, but what on earth are they going to do about their demographics in an immigrant-unfriendly situation?
